Quantitative risk assessment of the African swine fever introduction
into the Republic of Korea via legal import of live pigs and pig
products
Abstract
There are several routes of African swine fever (ASF) introduction into
a country. Among the possible routes of entry, quarantine policies
determine the possibility of introduction by legal import of live pigs
and pig products. This study aimed at assessing the probability of ASF
introduction through legal import of live pigs and pig products during
the high risk period (HRP) using a quantitative stochastic approach
during 2009-2018. The result indicates that the mean annual probability
of ASF introduction by legal import of live pig was 1.58×10-7
(1.52~1.67×10-7 95% CI). The mean annual probability by
legal import of pig products was 1.59×10-10
(1.55~1.64×10-10 95% CI), of which Poland assumed
87.9% of the mean annual risk. The current import quarantine policy of
Korean government may be enough to block the release of the virus via
legal import of live pigs and pig products, and it should be continually
enforced. This result can help to elucidate source of infection and
minimize the catastrophic consequences of the potential ASF
reintroduction into South Korea by designing risk mitigation strategies
such as risk-based selection of routes to be assessed and prevented and
decreased exposure possibility by increased control of food waste and
swill feeding practices.