There is growing evidence that climatic factors could influence the evolution of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we build on this evidence base, focusing on the southern hemisphere summer and autumn period. The relationship between climatic factors and COVID-19 cases in New South Wales, Australia was investigated during both the exponential and declining phases of the epidemic in 2020, and in different regions. Increased relative humidity was associated with decreased cases in both epidemic phases, and a consistent negative relationship was found between relative humidity and cases. Overall, a decrease in relative humidity of 1% was associated with an increase in cases of 7-8%. Overall, we found no relationship with between cases and temperature, rainfall or wind speed. Information generated in this study confirms humidity as a driver of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Previous research has identified a relationship between climate and occurrence of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV cases, information that can be used to reduce the risk of infection. Using COVID-19 notification and postcode data from New South Wales, Australia during the exponential phase of the epidemic in 2020, we used time-series analysis to investigate the relationship between 749 cases of locally-acquired COVID-19 and daily rainfall, 9am and 3pm temperature, and 9am and 3pm relative humidity. Lower 9am relative humidity (but not rainfall or temperature) was associated with increased case occurrence; a reduction in relative humidity of 1% was predicted to be associated with an increase of COVID-19 cases by 6.11%. During periods of low relative humidity, the public health system should anticipate an increased number of COVID-19 cases.