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Maria Vittoria Barbarossa
Public Documents
1
Germany's next shutdown -- possible scenarios and outcomes
Maria Vittoria Barbarossa
and 1 more
November 13, 2020
With the rapid increase of reported COVID-19 cases, German policymakers announced a 4-week “shutdown light” starting on Nov 2, 2020. Applying mathematical models, possible scenarios for the evolution of the outbreak in Germany are simulated. The results indicate that independent of the effectiveness of the current restrictive measures they might not be sufficient to mitigate the outbreak. Repeated shutdown periods or permanently applied measures over the winter could be successful alternatives.