We describe internal, low-frequency variability in a 21-year simulation with a cloud-resolving model. The model domain is the length of the equatorial Pacific and includes a mixed-layer ocean, which permits coherent cycles of sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric convection, and the convectively coupled circulation. The warming phase of the cycle is associated with near-uniform SST, less organized convection, and sparse low cloud cover, while the cooling phase exhibits strong SST gradients, highly organized convection, and enhanced low cloudiness. Both phases are quasi-stable but, on long timescales, are ultimately susceptible to instabilities resulting in rapid phase transitions.   The internal cycle is leveraged to understand the factors controlling the strength and structure of the tropical overturning circulation and the stratification of the tropical troposphere. The overturning circulation is strongly modulated by convective organization, with SST playing a lesser role. When convection is highly organized, the circulation is weaker and more bottom-heavy. Alternatively, tropospheric stratification depends on both convective organization and SST, depending on the vertical level. SST-driven variability dominates aloft while organization-driven variability dominates at lower levels. A similar pattern is found in ERA5 reanalysis of the equatorial Pacific. The relationship between convective organization and stratification is explicated using a simple entraining plume model. The results highlight the importance of convective organization for tropical variability and lay a foundation for future work using coupled, idealized models that explicitly resolve convection.

A document by Adam B Sokol. Click on the document to view its contents.

We conduct a global assessment of the spatial heterogeneity of cloud phase within the temperature range where liquid and ice can coexist. Single-shot CALIOP lidar retrievals are used to examine cloud phase at scales as fine as 333 m, and horizontal heterogeneity is quantified according to the frequency of switches between liquid and ice along the satellite’s path. In the global mean, heterogeneity is greatest between $-$15 and $-$4 \textdegree C with a peak at $-$5 \textdegree C, when small patches of ice are prevalent within liquid-dominated clouds. Heterogeneity “hot spots” are typically found over the extratropical continents, whereas phase is relatively homogeneous over the Southern Ocean and the eastern subtropical ocean basins, where supercooled liquid clouds dominate. Even at a fixed temperature, heterogeneity undergoes a pronounced annual cycle that, in most places, consists of a minimum during autumn or winter and a maximum during spring or summer. Based on this spatial and temporal variability, it is hypothesized that heterogeneity is affected by the availability of ice nucleating particles. These results can be used to improve the representation of subgrid-scale heterogeneity in general circulation models, which has the potential to reduce longstanding model biases in cloud phase partitioning and radiative fluxes.

Cirrus dominate the longwave radiative budget of the tropics. For the first time, we quantify the variability in cirrus properties and longwave cloud radiative effects (CREs) that arises from differences in microphysics within nudged global storm-resolving simulations from a single model. Nudging allows us to compute radiative biases precisely using coincident satellite measurements and to fix the large-scale dynamics across our set of simulations and isolate the influence of microphysics. We run five-day simulations with four commonly-used microphysics schemes of varying complexity (SAM1MOM, Thompson, M2005 and P3) and find that the tropical average longwave CRE varies over 20 W m$^{-2}$ between schemes. P3 best reproduces observed longwave CRE. M2005 and P3 simulate cirrus with realistic frozen water path but unrealistically high ice crystal number concentrations which commonly hit limiters and lack the variability and dependence on frozen water content seen in aircraft observations. Thompson and SAM1MOM have too little cirrus.

Satellite observations of tropical maritime convection indicate an afternoon maximum in anvil cloud fraction that cannot be explained by the diurnal cycle of deep convection peaking at night. We use idealized cloud-resolving model simulations of single anvil cloud evolution pathways, initialized at different times of the day, to show that tropical anvil clouds formed during the day are more widespread and longer lasting than those formed at night. This diurnal difference is caused by shortwave radiative heating, which lofts and spreads anvil clouds via a mesoscale circulation that is largely absent at night, when a different, longwave-driven circulation dominates. The nighttime circulation entrains dry environmental air that erodes cloud top and shortens anvil lifetime. Increased ice nucleation in more turbulent nighttime conditions supported by the longwave cloud top cooling and cloud base heating dipole cannot overcompensate for the effect of diurnal shortwave radiative heating. Radiative-convective equilibrium simulations with a realistic diurnal cycle of insolation confirm the crucial role of shortwave heating in lofting and sustaining anvil clouds. The shortwave-driven mesoscale ascent leads to daytime anvils with larger ice crystal size, number concentration, and water content at cloud top than their nighttime counterparts.

Cirrus control the longwave radiative budget of the tropics. For the first time, we quantify the variability in cirrus properties and longwave cloud radiative effects (CREs) that arises from using different bulk ice microphysical parameterizations within a single global storm-resolving model. We run five-day meteorologically-nudged simulations with four commonly-used microphysics schemes (M2005, Thompson, P3 and SAM1MOM) and evaluate them with satellite products and in situ observations. Tropical average longwave CRE varies over 20 W m$^{-2}$ between schemes. Within the Thompson scheme, rapid autoconversion of cloud ice to snow leads to deficient anvil cirrus even with radiatively active snow. SAM1MOM, which uses saturation adjustment for cloud ice, also has deficient anvil cirrus. M2005 and P3 simulate cirrus with realistic frozen water path, and P3 best reproduces observed longwave CRE. Even in those schemes, ice crystal number concentrations commonly hit limiters and lack the observed variability and dependence on frozen water content.

We conduct a global assessment of the spatial heterogeneity of cloud phase within the temperature range where liquid and ice can coexist. Single-shot CALIOP lidar retrievals are used to examine cloud phase at the 333-m scale, and heterogeneity is quantified according to the frequency of switches between liquid and ice along the satellite's path. In the global mean, heterogeneity is greatest from -15 to -2C with a peak at -4C, when small patches of ice are prevalent within liquid-dominated clouds. Above -20C, heterogeneity is greatest in the northern midlatitudes and lower over the Southern Ocean, where supercooled liquid clouds dominate. Zonal mean heterogeneity undergoes an annual cycle with a peak that follows seasonal shifts in the extratropical storm track. These results can be used to improve the representation of subgrid-scale heterogeneity in general circulation models, which has the potential to reduce model biases in phase partitioning and radiation balance.

The radiative cooling rate in the tropical upper troposphere is expected to increase as climate warms. Since the tropics are approximately in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), this implies an increase in the convective heating rate, which is the sum of the latent heating rate and the eddy heat flux convergence. We examine the impact of these changes on the vertical profile of cloud ice amount in cloud-resolving simulations of RCE. Three simulations are conducted: a control run, a warming run, and an experimental run in which there is no warming but a temperature forcing is imposed to mimic the warming-induced increase in radiative cooling. Surface warming causes a reduction in cloud fraction at all upper tropospheric temperature levels but an increase in the ice mixing ratio within deep convective cores. The experimental run has more cloud ice than the warming run at fixed temperature despite the fact that their latent heating rates are equal, which suggests that the efficiency of latent heating by cloud ice increases with warming. An analytic expression relating the ice-related latent heating rate to a number of other factors is derived and used to understand the model results. This reveals that the increase in latent heating efficiency is driven mostly by 1) the migration of isotherms to lower pressure and 2) a slight warming of the top of the convective layer. These physically robust changes act to reduce the residence time of ice along at any particular temperature level, which tempers the response of the mean cloud ice profile to warming.

This study examines how the congestus mode of tropical convection is expressed in numerical simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). We draw insights from the ensemble of cloud-resolving models participating in the RCE Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) and from a new ensemble of two-dimensional RCE simulations. About half of the RCEMIP models produce a congestus circulation that is distinct from the deep and shallow circulation modes. In both ensembles, congestus strength is associated with large-scale convective aggregation. Aggregation dries out the upper troposphere, which allows moist congestus outflow to undergo strong radiative cooling. The cooling generates divergence that promotes continued congestus overturning (a positive feedback). This mechanism is fundamentally similar to the driving of shallow circulations by radiative cooling at the top of the surface boundary layer. Aggregation and congestus invigoration are also associated with enhanced static stability throughout the troposphere. Changes in entrainment cooling are found to play an important role in stability enhancement, as has been suggested previously. A modeling experiment shows that enhanced stability is not necessary for congestus invigoration; rather, invigoration itself contributes to midlevel stability enhancement via its impact on the vertical profile of radiative cooling. When present, congestus circulations have a large impact on the mean RCE atmospheric state; for this reason, their inconsistent representation in models and their impact on the real tropical atmosphere warrant further scrutiny.