Seismic interferometry is a powerful tool to monitor the seismic velocity change associated with volcanic eruptions. For the monitoring, changes in seismic velocity with environmental origins (such as precipitation) are problematic. In order to model the environmental effects, we propose a new technique based on a state-space model. An extended Kalman filter estimates seismic velocity changes as state variables, with a first-order approximation of the stretching method. We apply this technique to three-component seismic records in order to detect the seismic velocity change associated with the Shinmoe-dake eruptions in 2011 and 2018. First, ambient noise cross-correlations were calculated from May 2010 to April 2018. We also modeled seismic velocity changes resulting from precipitation and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, with exponential type responses. Most of the results show no significant changes associated with the eruptions, although gradual inflation of the magma reservoir preceded the 2011 eruption by one year. The observed low sensitivity to static stress changes suggests that the fraction of geofluid and crack density at about 1 km depth is small, and the crack shapes could be circular. Only one station pair west of the crater shows the significant drop associated with the eruption in 2011. The gradual drop of seismic velocity up to 0.05% preceded the eruption by one month. When the gradual drop began, volcanic tremors were activated at about 2 km depth. These observations suggest that the drop could be caused by damage accumulation due to vertical magma migration beneath the summit.

We present deformation measurements of the Kirishima volcanic complex from ALOS-1/2 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time-series during 2006-2019. Shinmoe-dake deflated ~6 cm during the 2008-2010 phreatic eruptions and inflated ~5 cm prior to the 2017 magmatic eruption. Iwo-yama inflated ~19 cm within the crater since January 2015 and ~7 cm around the southern and western vent since four months before the 2018 eruption. These deformations can be modeled as an ellipsoid at ~700 m depth beneath Shinmoe-dake and as a sphere on top of an ellipsoid at ~130 and ~340 m depths beneath Iwo-yama. Combining geodetic, geoelectric, geochemical and petrological analysis, we interpret the hydrothermal origin of the deflation at Shinmoe-dake and inflation at Iwo-yama; the hydrothermal-magmatic transition during the 2011 Shinmoe-dake eruption; water-boiling and bottom-up pressurization as driving mechanisms of the inflation at Iwo-yama. The study highlights the imaging potential of InSAR time-series on complex hydrothermal systems.

An unusual devastating tsunami occurred on 28 September 2018 after a strike-slip faulting earthquake in Sulawesi, Indonesia. The induced tsunami struck Palu city with 4-m wave height and flow depth. We performed a two-step analysis to investigate the source of the tsunami. We first conducted the teleseismic source inversion and obtained the slip distribution of the strike-slip fault. Our tsunami simulation from the coseismic deformation of the seismically-estimated strike-slip faulting produced a tsunami comparable to the leading part of the observation at Pantoloan. We then jointly utilized the tsunami waveform and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data to reconstruct the detailed slip distribution on the fault plane. Because of the lack of SAR data in the bay, the tsunami data is necessary to constrain the offshore slip distribution, which directly induces the tsunami. The inverted source model shows a strike-slip fault which consists of three segments extending from the epicenter to the south of 1.4°S with two bends and two asperities around Palu city. The joint inversion model accurately reconstructs the observed surface displacements and the leading part of the tsunami waveform. Our result exhibits the significant contribution of the strike-slip faulting to the tsunami, but it also suggests additional tsunami sources, such as landslides, for the high inundations near Palu bay. The result also indicates that regional devastating tsunamis can result from an onshore strike-slip fault with localized large dip slip.

The orientation of faulting associated with volcano-tectonic earthquakes follows the stress field there, as with tectonic earthquakes. Therefore, stress changes associated with volcanic activity change fault orientations or focal mechanisms. Zhan et al. (2022) observed temporal changes of focal mechanisms associated with volcanic unrest. They decomposed the stress field into the ambient differential stress, volcano loading, and the stress change by the dike intrusion; they then evaluated their relative contributions to constrain the magnitude of the ambient differential stress that is consistent with the observation. This study indicates that focal mechanisms can be used to monitor the stress state of an active volcano. Combining focal mechanisms with other geophysical observables, such as seismic anisotropy and geodetic measurements, will give us more precise assessments of the stress state, leading to better forecasts of volcanic activity.