The cold point tropopause, the minimum temperature within the tropical upper troposphere-lower stratosphere region (UTLS), significantly impacts the Earth’s climate by influencing the amount of water vapor entering the lower stratosphere. Understanding which mechanisms are most important in setting the cold point temperature and height may help us better predict how it will change in a future warmed climate. The goal of this analysis is to evaluate two mechanisms that may influence the cold point – cold point-overshooting convection and the radiative lofting of thin cirrus near the cold point – by comparing 30-day global storm-resolving model (GSRM) simulations from the winter phase of the DYAMOND initiative to satellite observations. GSRMs have explicit deep convection and sufficiently fine grid spacings to simulate convective overshoots and UTLS cirrus, making them a promising tool for this purpose.   We find that the GSRMs reproduce the observed distribution of cold point-overshooting convection but do not simulate enough cirrus capable of radiative lofting near the cold point. Both the models and observations show a strong relationship between areas of frequent cold point overshoots and colder cold points, suggesting that cold point-overshooting convection has a notable influence on the mean cold point. However, we find little evidence that the radiative lofting of cold point cirrus substantially influences the cold point. Cold point-overshooting convection alone cannot explain all variations in the cold point across different GSRMs or regions; future studies using longer GSRM simulations that consider longer-term UTLS processes are needed to fully understand what sets the cold point.

We describe internal, low-frequency variability in a 21-year simulation with a cloud-resolving model. The model domain is the length of the equatorial Pacific and includes a mixed-layer ocean, which permits coherent cycles of sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric convection, and the convectively coupled circulation. The warming phase of the cycle is associated with near-uniform SST, less organized convection, and sparse low cloud cover, while the cooling phase exhibits strong SST gradients, highly organized convection, and enhanced low cloudiness. Both phases are quasi-stable but, on long timescales, are ultimately susceptible to instabilities resulting in rapid phase transitions.   The internal cycle is leveraged to understand the factors controlling the strength and structure of the tropical overturning circulation and the stratification of the tropical troposphere. The overturning circulation is strongly modulated by convective organization, with SST playing a lesser role. When convection is highly organized, the circulation is weaker and more bottom-heavy. Alternatively, tropospheric stratification depends on both convective organization and SST, depending on the vertical level. SST-driven variability dominates aloft while organization-driven variability dominates at lower levels. A similar pattern is found in ERA5 reanalysis of the equatorial Pacific. The relationship between convective organization and stratification is explicated using a simple entraining plume model. The results highlight the importance of convective organization for tropical variability and lay a foundation for future work using coupled, idealized models that explicitly resolve convection.

A document by Isabel L. McCoy. Click on the document to view its contents.

Cloud responses to surface-based sources of aerosol perturbation depend in part on the characteristics of the aerosol transport to cloud base and the resulting spatial and temporal distribution of aerosol. However, interactions among aerosol, cloud, and turbulence processes complicate the prediction of this aerosol transport and can obscure diagnosis of the aerosols' effects on cloud and turbulence properties. Here, scenarios of plume injection below a marine stratocumulus cloud are modeled using large eddy simulations coupled to a prognostic bulk aerosol and cloud microphysics scheme. Both passive plumes, consisting of an inert tracer, and active plumes are investigated, where the latter are representative of saltwater droplet plumes such as have been proposed for marine cloud brightening. Passive plume scenarios show a spurious in-plume cloud brightening due solely to the connections between updrafts, cloud condensation, and scalar transport. Numerical sensitivities are first assessed to establish a suitable model configuration. Then sensitivity to particle injection rate is investigated. Trade-offs are identified between the number of injected particles and the suppressive effect of droplet evaporation on plume loft and spread. Furthermore, as the in-plume brightening effect does not depend significantly on injection rate given a suitable definition of perturbed versus unperturbed regions of the flow, plume area is a key controlling factor on the overall cloud brightening effect of an aerosol perturbation.

This study investigates the impact of weak sea surface temperature (SST) warm anomalies on trade cumulus cloudiness in an idealized and ensemble framework with large-eddy simulations. The control experiment uses a spatially uniform, time-invariant SST and mean large-scale conditions and atmospheric forcings derived from the Atlantic Tradewind Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign (ATOMIC). The perturbed experiment adds a Gaussian warm SST anomaly (SSTA) with a 12.5 km radius and 0.5 K magnitude. The ensemble-averaged differences between perturbation and control experiments show that cloud fraction is enhanced over the downwind half of the prescribed warm SSTA, with the enhancement peaking slightly above the environmental lifting condensation level (LCL) and then decaying with height. Furthermore, the low-level cloud response (<1 km) to the warm SSTA is stronger and occurs more systematically across different ensemble members. This near-LCL cloud response is driven by enhanced surface buoyancy flux and turbulence over the warm SSTA as opposed to SSTA-induced anomalous surface convergence and mesoscale upward motions. Process denial experiments indicate that the locally enhanced surface sensible and latent heat fluxes contribute almost equally to increase the near-LCL cloudiness, even though the locally enhanced surface sensible heat flux plays a dominant role in enhancing surface buoyancy flux. These results corroborate recent satellite composite results (Chen et al., 2023), suggesting that the observed increase of daily cloud fraction above warm SSTAs is due to more frequent turbulence-driven formation of shallow cumuli near the cloud base.

A document by Simon P. de Szoeke. Click on the document to view its contents.

Cirrus dominate the longwave radiative budget of the tropics. For the first time, we quantify the variability in cirrus properties and longwave cloud radiative effects (CREs) that arises from differences in microphysics within nudged global storm-resolving simulations from a single model. Nudging allows us to compute radiative biases precisely using coincident satellite measurements and to fix the large-scale dynamics across our set of simulations and isolate the influence of microphysics. We run five-day simulations with four commonly-used microphysics schemes of varying complexity (SAM1MOM, Thompson, M2005 and P3) and find that the tropical average longwave CRE varies over 20 W m$^{-2}$ between schemes. P3 best reproduces observed longwave CRE. M2005 and P3 simulate cirrus with realistic frozen water path but unrealistically high ice crystal number concentrations which commonly hit limiters and lack the variability and dependence on frozen water content seen in aircraft observations. Thompson and SAM1MOM have too little cirrus.

In-situ measurements of the trade cumulus boundary layer turbulence structure are compared across large-scale circulation conditions and cloud horizontal organizations during the EUREC4A-ATOMIC campaign. The vertical structure of turbulent (e.g. vertical velocity variance, total kinetic energy) and flux (e.g. sensible, latent, and buoyancy) quantities are derived and investigated using the WP-3D aircraft stacked level legs (cloud modules).The 16 cloud modules aboard the P-3 were split into three groups according to cloud top height and column-integrated TKE and vertical velocity variance. These groups map onto qualitative cloud features related to object size and clustering over a scale of 100 km. This grouping also correlates to the large scale forcings of surface windspeed and low-level divergence on the scale of a few hundred km. The ratio cloud top to trade inversion base height is consistent across the groups at around 1.18. The altitude of maximum turbulence is 0.75-0.85 of cloud top height. The consistency of these ratios across the groups may point to the underlying coupling between convection, dissipation, and boundary layer thermodynamic structure. The following picture of turbulence and cloud organization is proposed: (1) light surface winds and turbulence which decreases from the sub-cloud mixed layer (ML) with height generates clouds with generally uniform spacing and smaller features, then (2) as the surface winds increase, convective aggregation occurs, and finally (3), if surface convergence occurs, convection and turbulence reach higher altitudes, producing higher clouds which may precipitate and create colds pools. Observations are compared to a CAM simulation is run over the study period, nudged by ERA5 winds and surface pressure. CAM produces higher column integrated turbulent kinetic energy and larger maximum values on the days where higher cloud tops are observed from the aircraft, which is likely a factor that influences the development of deeper clouds in the model. However, CAM places the peak turbulence 500 m lower than observed, suggesting there may be a bias in CAM representation of turbulence and moisture transport. CAM also does not capture the large LHFs seen for two of the days in which lower cloud tops are observed, which could result in insufficient lower free tropospheric moistening in the model during this type of cloud organization. A large and consistent bias between the model and observations for all cloud groups is the negative SHFs produced in CAM near 1500 m. This is not observed in the measurements. This leads to a net negative buoyancy flux not observed and provides evidence of a specific shortcoming that can be addressed as part of the needed improvement in the representation of clouds by large-scale models.

Low marine clouds are a major source of uncertainty in cloud feedbacks across climate models and in forcing by aerosol-cloud interactions. The evolution of these clouds and their response to aerosol are sensitive to the ambient environmental conditions, so it is important to be able to determine different responses over a representative set of conditions. Here, we propose a novel approach to encompassing the broad range of conditions present in low marine cloud regions, by building a library of observed environmental conditions. This approach can be used, for example, to more systematically test the fidelity of Large Eddy Simulations (LES) in representing these clouds. ERA5 reanalysis and various satellite observations are used to extract and derive macrophysical and microphysical cloud-controlling variables (CCVs) such as SST, estimated inversion strength (EIS), subsidence, and cloud droplet number concentrations. A few locations in the stratocumulus (Sc) deck region of the Northeast Pacific during summer are selected to fill out a phase space of CCVs. Thereafter, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied to reduce the dimensionality and to select a reduced set of components that explain most of the variability among CCVs in order to efficiently select cases for LES simulations that encompass the observed CCV phase space. From this phase space, 75-100 cases with distinct environmental conditions will be selected and used to initialize 2-day LES modeling to provide a spectrum of aerosol-cloud interactions and Sc-to-Cumulus transition under observed ambient conditions. Such a large number of simulations will help create statistics to assess how well the LES can simulate the cloud lifecycle when constrained by the ‘best estimate’ of the environmental conditions, and how sensitive the modeled clouds are to changes in these driving fields.

Observed stratocumulus to cumulus transitions (SCT) and their sensitivity to aerosols are studied using a Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) model that simulates the aerosol lifecycle, including aerosol sources and sinks. To initialize, force, and evaluate the LES, we used a combination of reanalysis, satellite, and aircraft data from the 2015 Cloud System Evolution in the Trades field campaign over the Northeast Pacific. The simulations follow two Lagrangian trajectories from initially overcast stratocumulus to the tropical shallow cumulus region near Hawaii. The first trajectory is characterized by an initially clean, well-mixed stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layer (MBL), then continuous MBL deepening and precipitation onset followed by a clear SCT and a consistent reduction of aerosols that ultimately leads to an ultra-clean layer in the upper MBL. The second trajectory is characterized by an initially polluted and decoupled MBL, weak precipitation, and a late SCT. Overall, the LES simulates the observed general MBL features. Sensitivity studies with different aerosol initial and boundary conditions reveal aerosol-induced changes in the transition, and albedo changes are decomposed into the Twomey effect and adjustments of cloud liquid water path and cloud fraction. Impacts on precipitation play a key role in the sensitivity to aerosols: for the first case, runs with enhanced aerosols exhibit distinct changes in microphysics and macrophysics such as enhanced cloud droplet number concentration, reduced precipitation, and delayed SCT. Cloud adjustments are dominant in this case. For the second case, enhancing aerosols does not affect cloud macrophysical properties significantly, and the Twomey effect dominates.

In clouds containing both liquid and ice that have temperatures between -3C and -8C, liquid droplets collide with large ice crystals, freeze, and shatter, producing a plethora of small ice splinters. This process, known as Hallett-Mossop rime splintering, can cause clouds to reflect less sunlight and to have shorter lifetimes. Here, we use a novel suite of five global cloud-resolving models, which break up the Earth’s atmosphere into columns with 2-4 km horizontal edges, to show that this microscale process has global implications. Simulations that include Hallett-Mossop rime splintering have reduced cumulus cloud cover over the Southern Ocean and reflect 12 Wm^(-2) less sunlight back to space over the same region, better matching satellite observed radiative fluxes. We evaluate simulated clouds using high-resolution visible images from the Himawari satellite, and radar reflectivities and two-dimensional images of cloud particles from the SOCRATES aircraft campaign. Cumulus clouds from simulations with Hallett-Mossop rime splintering included have more realistic cloud morphology, cloud vertical structure and ice crystal properties. We show that Hallett-Mossop rime splintering is an important control on cumulus cloud cover and cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, and that including it in simulations improves model performance. We also demonstrate the key role that global cloud-resolving models can play in detangling the effects of clouds on Earth’s climate across scales, making it possible to translate the behavior of tiny cloud particles (10^(-8) m^2) to their impact on the radiative budget of the massive Southern Ocean basin (10^(14) m^2).

4 Key Points: 5 • The SST contrast increases with warming, primarily because the clear-sky green-6 house effect feedback is stronger in the warm region. 7 • As the climate warms, the integrated cooling rate of the atmosphere increases by 8 moving upward into lower pressures and increasing in strength, giving a more top-9 heavy cooling profile. 10 • The more top-heavy cooling rate profile results in increased cloud ice as the cli-11 mate warms. Abstract 13 Warming experiments with a uniformly insolated, non-rotating climate model with a slab 14 ocean are conducted by increasing the solar irradiance. As the climate warms, the sur-15 face temperature contrast between the warm, rising and cooler, subsiding regions increases, 16 mostly as a result of the stronger greenhouse effect in the warm region. The convective 17 heating rate becomes more top-heavy in warmed climates, producing more cloud ice, prin-18 cipally because the radiative cooling rate moves to lower pressures and increases. To pro-19 duce this more top-heavy convective heating, precipitation shifts from the convective to 20 the stratiform parameterization. The net cloud radiative effect becomes more negative 21 in the warm region as the climate warms. At temperatures above about 310K surface 22 temperature contrast begins to decline, and the climate becomes more sensitive. The re-23 duction in SST contrast above 310K again appears to be initiated by clear-sky radiative 24 processes, although cloud processes in both the rising and subsiding regions contribute. 25 The response of clear-sky outgoing longwave to surface warming begins to accelerate in 26 the region of rising motion and decline in the region of subsidence, driving the SST con-27 trast to smaller values. One-dimensional simulations are used to isolate the most rele-28 vant physics. 29 Plain Language Summary 30 A global model of a non-rotating Earth with an ocean that stores heat but does 31 not transport it is run to equilibrium with different values of globally uniform solar heat-32 ing. Despite the complete uniformity of the system, it still develops regions of warm sea 33 surface temperature where rain and rising motion occur, and regions with downward, 34 subsiding air motion where rainfall does not occur. These contrasts look very similar to 35 what is observed in the present-day tropics. As the climate is warmed from current tem-36 peratures toward warmer temperatures, the warm regions warm faster, mostly because 37 the rising regions contain more water vapor. The clouds rise to higher altitudes in the 38 warmer climates, and produce more cloud ice. These changes are shown to arise from 39 well-understood physical processes that are expected to operate in nature. 40