A document by Shibaji Chakraborty. Click on the document to view its contents.

The total energy transfer from the solar wind to the magnetosphere is governed by the reconnection rate at the magnetosphere edges as the IMF $B_z$ turns southward. The delayed response of the ring current to solar wind driving can account for the anomalous growth of the SYM-H under northward IMF $B_z$. The geomagnetic storm on 21-22 January 2005 is considered to be anomalous as the SYM-H index that signifies the strength of ring current, grows and has a sustained peak value lasting more than 6 hrs under northward IMF $B_z$ conditions. In this work, first the standard WINDMI model is utilized to estimate the growth and decay of various magnetospheric currents by using several solar wind-magnetopsehre coupling functions. However, it is found that the WINDMI model driven by any of these coupling functions is not fully able to explain the enhancement of SYM-H under northward IMF $B_z$. The SYM-H variations during the entire duration of the storm were only reproduced when the effects of the dense plasma sheet were included in the WINDMI model. The limitations of directly-driven models relying purely on the solar wind parameters and not accounting for the state of the magnetosphere are highlighted by this work.

Ionospheric conductance is a crucial factor in regulating the closure of magnetospheric field-aligned currents through the ionosphere as Hall and Pedersen currents. Despite its importance in predictive investigations of the magnetosphere - ionosphere coupling, the estimation of ionospheric conductance in the auroral region is precarious in most global first-principles based models. This impreciseness in estimating the auroral conductance impedes both our understanding and predictive capabilities of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system during extreme space weather events. In this article, we address this concern, with the development of an advanced Conductance Model for Extreme Events (CMEE) that estimates the auroral conductance from field aligned current values. CMEE has been developed using nonlinear regression over a year’s worth of one-minute resolution output from assimilative maps, specifically including times of extreme driving of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The model also includes provisions to enhance the conductance in the aurora using additional adjustments to refine the auroral oval. CMEE has been incorporated within the Ridley Ionosphere Model (RIM) of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) for usage in space weather simulations. This paper compares performance of CMEE against the existing conductance model in RIM, through a validation process for six space weather events. The performance analysis indicates overall improvement in the ionospheric feedback to ground-based space weather forecasts. Specifically, the model is able to improve the prediction of ionospheric currents which impact the simulated dB/dt and ΔB, resulting in substantial improvements in dB/dt predictive skill.

Over–the–Horizon (OTH) communication is strongly dependent on the state of the ionosphere, which is susceptible to solar flares. Trans–ionospheric high frequency (HF) signals experience a strong attenuation following a solar flare, commonly referred to as Short–Wave Fadeout (SWF). In this study, we examine the role of dispersion relation–collision frequency formulations on the estimation of flare–driven HF absorption seen in Riometer observation using a data assimilation framework. Specifically, the framework first uses modified solar irradiance models (such as EUVAC, FISM), which incorporate high–resolution solar flux data from GOES satellite X-ray sensors, to compute the enhanced ionization produced during the flare events. The framework then uses different dispersion relation–collision frequency formulations to estimate enhanced HF absorption. Finally, the modeled HF absorption is compared against the data to determine which combination of dispersion relation–collision frequency formulation best reproduces the Riometer observations. From the modeling work, we find that the Appleton–Hartree dispersion relation in combination with Schunk–Nagy collision frequency profile produces the best agreement with Riometer data.

The term “ionospheric sluggishness” is used to describe the time delay between maximum radio absorption in the ionosphere following the time of maximum irradiance during a solar flare. Sluggishness is one of the characteristic properties known to be maximized around D-region heights and can be used for studying lower ionospheric (D-region) and mesospheric chemistry. This article is our first attempt to estimate ionospheric sluggishness using high frequency (HF, 3 – 30 MHz) instruments. Specifically, we report on first estimates of sluggishness from riometer and SuperDARN observations following a solar flare and propose two new methods to estimate sluggishness. Sluggishness is shown to be anti-correlated with the peak solar X-ray flux and positively correlated with solar zenith angle and geographic latitude. The choice of instrument, method, and reference solar waveband effects the sluggishness estimation. A simulation study was performed to estimate the effective recombination coefficient, which was found to vary between 4-5 orders of magnitude. We suggest that the effective recombination coefficient is highly sensitive to D-region’s negative and positive ion chemistry.

Trans–ionospheric high frequency (HF) signals experience a strong attenuation following a solar flare, commonly referred to as Short–Wave Fadeout (SWF). Although solar flare-driven HF absorption is a well-known impact of SWF, the occurrence of a frequency shift on radio wave signal traversing the lower ionosphere in the early stages of SWF, also known as “Doppler Flash”, is newly reported and not well understood. Some prior investigations have suggested two possible sources that might contribute to the manifestation of Doppler Flash: first, enhancements of plasma density in the D and lower E regions; second, the lowering of the reflection point in the F region. Observations and modeling evidence regarding the manifestation and evolution of Doppler Flash in the ionosphere are limited. This study seeks to advance our understanding of the initial impacts of solar flare-driven SWF. We use WACCM-X to estimate flare-driven enhanced ionization in D, E, and F-regions and a ray-tracing code (Pharlap) to simulate a 1-hop HF communication through the modified ionosphere. Once the ray traveling path has been identified, the model estimates the Doppler frequency shift along the ray path. Finally, the outputs are validated against observations of SWF made with SuperDARN HF radars. We find that changes in refractive index in the D and lower E regions due to plasma density enhancement are the primary cause of Doppler Flash.