The Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium’s ocean and sea ice state estimate is a dynamically consistent model-data synthesis, providing an invaluable tool for climate research. The official ECCO release has undergone formal optimization to reduce the model-data misfit, but uncertainties remain in the solution due to sparse and uncertain assimilated data constraints, model representation error, and other factors. As a result, small amplitude perturbations to the optimized controls may yield notable differences in the estimated state without notably increasing the model-data misfit, i.e., they provide distinct but equally acceptable solutions to the inverse problem. We pursue this possibility and focus on the impact of uncertainty in the atmospheric control variables via an ensemble perturbation approach. Our focus allows the covariance of control variables to be accounted for in the ensemble construction and avoids the complexity of assessing interactions between surface and interior sources of uncertainty. Time-mean adjustments are found to be critical in reducing model-data misfits and generating an acceptable solution to the inverse problem. Time-varying adjustments principally correct errors in the seasonal cycle and show fingerprints of changes to the ocean observing system and optimization framework. Truncating a low order representation of these adjustments across our ensemble yields distinct but acceptable solutions with moderate changes in climate-relevant metrics. Our results highlight the value of rigorous uncertainty quantification to support future applications of ECCO and ocean reanalysis in forecasting and climate research.

The Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front (TZCF) is a dynamic region of elevated chlorophyll concentrations in the Northeast Pacific that migrates from a southern winter (February) extent of approximately 30°N to a northern summer (August) extent of approximately 40°N. The transition zone has been highlighted as important habitat for marine animals and fisheries. We re-examine the physical and biological drivers of seasonal TZCF variability using a variety of remote sensing, reanalysis, and in-situ datasets. Satellite-based remote sensing estimates of chlorophyll and carbon concentrations show that seasonal TZCF migration primarily reflects a seasonal increase in the chlorophyll to carbon ratio, rather than changes in phytoplankton carbon. We use our data compilation to demonstrate how the seasonality of light and nutrient fluxes decouple chlorophyll and carbon seasonality at the transition zone latitudes. Seasonal mixed-layer-averaged light availability is positively correlated with carbon and negatively correlated with chlorophyll through the transition zone, while climatological nitrate profiles show that chlorophyll to carbon ratios are facilitated by wintertime nitrate entrainment. These empirical results are consistent with physiological data and models describing elevated chlorophyll to carbon ratios in low light, nutrient-replete environments, demonstrating the importance of latitudinal structure in interpreting seasonal chlorophyll dynamics at the basin scale.

The mid-to-high latitude North Atlantic features cold temperature anomalies on interannual timescales. For example, in 2015 a region of open ocean southwest of Greenland reached a record low temperature relative to the period 1880-2015. Such rapid drops in upper ocean heat content have been linked to impacts on the North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate (e.g. heat waves induced by changing atmospheric circulation patterns). Despite their potential importance for regional climate, the specific mechanisms that induce these interannual cold anomalies are still not well understood. In particular, the relative importance of changes in surface forcing compared with upwelling of deep ocean cold anomalies (i.e. those below 500 m) in establishing the 2015 cold anomaly is a topic of intense debate. Here we use an observationally-constrained ocean model in adjoint mode to calculate the sensitivities of upper ocean heat content to local and remote surface forcing. Adjoint methods allow us to quantify the relative contributions of wind stress and net heat flux in producing the 2015 cold anomaly. Wind stress contributes to the cold anomaly via both (1) strengthening surface latent and sensible heat losses and (2) inducing changes in ocean circulation. Net heat flux contributes to the cold anomaly by inducing heat loss in both local and upstream waters. We also use adjoint methods to calculate (1) the source waters that contributed to the cold anomaly and (2) regions that may have contributed to the cold anomaly by inducing changes in synoptic-scale ocean circulation. Furthermore, we examine the large-scale context by calculating the sensitivities of subpolar gyre heat content to surface forcing and the ocean state. Our results suggest that surface forcing, particularly the extreme heat loss event in the winter of 2013-2014, played a dominant role in producing the 2015 cold anomaly.

The origins of the upper branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are traced with backward-in-time Lagrangian trajectories, quantifying the partition of volume transport between different routes of entry from the Indo-Pacific sector into the Atlantic. Particles are advected by a three-dimensional, incompressible velocity field from a recent release of “Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean’ (ECCOv4). This time-variable velocity field is a dynamically consistent interpolation of over one billion oceanographic observations collected between 1992 and 2015. Of the 13.6 Sverdrups (1Sv = $10^6$ m$^3$/s) of upper and intermediate water flowing northward across 6\mdeg S, 15% enters the Atlantic from Drake Passage, 35% enters from the straits between Asia and Australia, termed the Indonesian Throughflow, and 49% comes from the region south of Australia, termed the Tasman Leakage. The salinity budget shows that the AMOC exports freshwater out of the Atlantic.