This paper presents the first application of multichannel singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) to radar satellite geodesy. We apply M-SSA to Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time series processed for Pacaya Volcano in Guatemala in two steps. First, we produce, in an iterative and data-adaptive way, estimates of missing data points to obtain evenly sampled time series. The resulting time series are then decomposed with M-SSA into long-periodic nonlinear trends and oscillatory modes providing a sparse representation of the signals present in the data. The M-SSA approach presented herein is designed to deal with very large datasets such as collections of InSAR time series. Combining M-SSA with power spectrum analysis show that the dominant frequencies of the main oscillatory modes correspond to 1, 1.5, 2, 3, 5.8 and 6.8 cycle per years. These frequencies are consistent with the seasonal variability of the regional hydrological system, as determined from correlograms of rainfall time series and M-SSA modes extracted from time series of regional gravity anomalies using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) time series recorded in Guatemala City, and phase delay maps derived from a global weather model. While some of the seasonal oscillations correlate well with topography, others show significant spatial asymmetries. The extracted nonlinear trends show large amplitudes around the summit and within the area covered by the 2014 lava flows and, to a lesser extent, the 2010 lava flows. This nonlinear trend correlates with interannual variability of the regional water cycle.

Magmatism is a known driver of flank instability at volcanoes where flank slip has been observed. Studies of instability at Kīlauea, Piton de la Fournaise, and Etna imply that long-term flank motion likely requires the presence of a layer accommodating the sliding, and a force, such as magma intrusion, that promotes slip. We present a parametric study using 2D Finite Element Models (FEMs), to assess how edifice aspect ratio, detachment fault geometry, asymmetric buttressing, and intrusion depth affect the potential for development of magma-driven flank instability at volcanoes. We quantify whether the tested conditions would favor flank slip based on the Coulomb Stress Changes (CSCs) associated with endmember scenarios and showcase the expected surface displacements for each scenario, to highlight their deviations from half-space models. Development of instability is more likely when flank slip is along a shallower-dipping receiver fault and the dike intrusion spans the edifice, regardless of edifice steepness. Another favorable scenario occurs in steep edifices with a steeply-dipping receiver fault when the dike is beneath the edifice. Buttressing slightly enlarges the region with conducive CSCs on shallow-dipping faults when the dike is within the edifice but shrinks the region with conducive CSCs in the steep edifice case with steeply-dipping faults. We also find that neglecting topography yields different magnitudes and extents of surface deformation, especially for steeper volcanic edifices. This topographical effect is more important when modeling horizontal displacements and stress fields induced by shallower intrusions.

A combination of magmatic and tectonic processes occur on the western branch of the East African Rift System (EARS) driven by active volcanoes adjacent to active rift faults. Mt. Nyiragongo and Mt. Nyamuragira have the most recent eruptive histories of the 8 volcanoes in the Virunga Volcanic Zone (VVZ) located in a region between Rwanda, Uganda and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). On May 22nd 2021, Mt.Nyiragongo erupted the first major eruption following its 2002 eruption. This eruption didn’t have the common precursory seismic activity expected before an eruption as was observed in the 2002 eruption seismic record. Rather, there were numerous post-eruption earthquake events with the largest of those events being a magnitude ML 5.1. Around the region of the earthquake swarm, there was observable ground deformation in the city of Goma and Rubavu where surface fissures destroyed houses and split roads apart. This deformation appears to be related to a N-S striking dike intrusion from the volcano trending south towards and under Lake Kivu, according to observed seismicity. In collaboration with the Government of Rwanda, following the May Mt. Nyiragongo eruption, we established a network of 6 seismometers (2 Meridian Compact PH and 4 Trillium Compact PH) operating at 100 sps and two complimentary raspberry Shake and Booms (SBS) around Lake Kivu. This study will focus on characterizing deformation associated with the eruption and the subsequent seismic swarm. Here we present model results based on deformation during the May 2021 eruption as recorded through ALOS InSAR scenes to understand slip concentration during the dike intrusion. Using GTDef, a set of algorithms developed in MATLAB that can incorporate a wide range of geodetic data types to model deformation observed on the Earth’s surface, we model the slip distribution in this region based on the current hypothesis that the observed seismicity was a result of a dike intrusion defined by the southward propagation of the seismic swarm from Mt. Nyiragongo. Given an approximate source, we determine a preferred GNSS/GPS network design based on resolution-cost of additional stations at given locations and discuss first order characterization of the observed deformation.

On the 22nd of May 2021, although no alarming precursory unrest had been reported, Nyiragongo volcano erupted and lava flows threatened about 1 million of inhabitants living in the cities of Goma (Democratic Republic of Congo) and Giseny (Rwanda). After January 1977 and January 2002, it was the beginning of the third historically known flank eruption of Nyiragongo volcano and the first ever to be recorded by dense measurements both on the ground and from space. In the following days, seismic and geodetic data as well as fracture mapping revealed the gradual southward propagation of a shallow dike from the Nyiragongo edifice underlying below Goma airport on May 23-24, then Goma and Gisenyi city centers on May 25-26 and finally below the northern part of Lake Kivu on May 27. Southward migration of the associated seismic swarm slowed down between May 27 and June 02. Micro seismicity became more diffuse, progressively activating transverse tectonic structures previously identified in the whole Lake Kivu basin. Here we exploit ground based and remote sensing data as well as inversion and physics-based models to fully characterize the dike sized, the dynamics of dike propagation and its arrest against a structural lineament known as the Nyabihu Fault. This work highlights the shallow origin of the dike, the segmented dike propagation controlled by the interaction with pre-existing fracture networks and the incremental crater collapse associated with drainage which led to the disappearance of the world’s largest long-living lava lake on top of Nyiragongo.