An assessment of the hydrological response of the Olivares River
catchment during severe droughts and glacier retreat scenarios
Abstract
In the semi-arid Andes Cordillera of central Chile (31–36°S), mountain
glaciers are important reservoirs of freshwater, especially during
droughts, contributing between 70 and 80% of the total runoff. In this
work, we use the physically-oriented and spatially-distributed
TOPKAPI-ETH glacio-hydrological model to simulate the response of
glaciers to severe droughts in the Olivares River catchment. The
glacierized area of this catchment is equivalent to 26% of the total
glacier area in the Maipo River basin, the main source of surface water
for Santiago de Chile – where more than 40% of the population in the
country lives. To this end, we force TOPKAPI-ETH with synthetic droughts
under several scenarios of glacier retreat, defined by two climate
scenarios: i) current climate, preserving the mean and standard
deviation of precipitation and temperature observed during the period
1990-2009, and ii) considering the Paris Agreement and constraining the
global temperature rise – relative to preindustrial levels – to 1.5°C,
projected by a small number of climate models under the RCP2.6 long-term
scenario. We also use outputs from regional climate model simulations
generated by the Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2) to
represent what would be an increase of mean temperature in our domain.
To assess the hydrological response of glaciers, and the contribution to
total runoff under these scenarios, we compare our results with those
obtained for droughts observed in this region during 1967-1969 and
2010-2015, considered as the most important events to date in Chile.
Ongoing efforts are oriented to quantify ice loss under current climatic
conditions, elevation line altitude variations during the long-term
simulation, variations in glacier area and volume, and basin response to
future drought under glacier retreat scenarios. Preliminary results show
that glacier relative contribution to runoff at the end of the summer
season increases up to 25% during the reference droughts, but decreases
about 40% to 75% in comparison to the reference period considering
climate scenarios.