The Music of Rivers: The Mathematics of Waves Reveals Global Structure
and Drivers of Streamflow Regime
Abstract
River flows change on timescales ranging from minutes to millennia.
These variations influence fundamental functions of ecosystems,
including biogeochemical fluxes, aquatic habitat, and human society.
Efforts to describe temporal variation in river flow—i.e., flow
regime—have resulted in hundreds of unique descriptors, complicating
interpretation and identification of global drivers of flow dynamics.
Here, we used a cross-disciplinary analytical approach to investigate
two related questions: 1. Is there a low-dimensional structure that can
be used to simplify descriptions of streamflow regime? 2. What catchment
characteristics are most associated with that structure? Using a global
database of daily river discharge from 1988-2016 for 3,120 stations, we
calculated 189 traditional flow metrics, which we compared to the
results of a wavelet analysis. Both quantification techniques
independently revealed that streamflow data contain substantial
low-dimensional structure that correlates closely with a small number of
catchment characteristics. This structure provides a framework for
understanding fundamental controls of river flow variability across
multiple timescales. Climate was the most important variable across all
timescales, especially those lasting several weeks, and likely
contributes as much as dams in controlling flow regime. Catchment area
was critical for timescales lasting several days, as was human impact
for timescales lasting several years. In addition, both methods
suggested that streamflow data also contain high-dimensional structure
that is harder to predict from a small number of catchment
characteristics (i.e. is dependent on land use, soil structure, etc.),
and which accounts for the difficulty of producing simple hydrological
models that generalize well.