Abstract
We present a method for forecasting the foF2 and hmF2 parameters using
modal decompositions from measured ionospheric electron density
profiles. Our method is based on Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD), which
provides a means of determining spatiotemporal modes from measurements
alone. Our proposed extensions to DMD use wavelet decompositions that
provide separation of a wide range of high-intensity, transient temporal
scales in the measured data. This scale separation allows for DMD models
to be fit on each scale individually, and we show that together they
generate a more accurate forecast of the time-evolution of the F-layer
peak. We call this method the Scale-Separated Dynamic Mode Decomposition
(SSDMD). The approach is shown to produce stable modes that can be used
as a time-stepping model to predict the state of foF2 and hmF2 at a high
time resolution. We demonstrate the SSDMD method on data sets covering
periods of high and low solar activity as well as low, mid, and high
latitude locations.