Monitoring wildlife population trends with sample counts: A case study
on the Alpine ibex (Capra ibex)
Abstract
Monitoring population dynamics is of fundamental importance in
conservation but assessing trends in abundance can be costly, especially
in large and rough areas. Obtaining trend estimations from counts
performed in only a portion of the total area (sample counts) can be a
cost-effective method to improve the monitoring and conservation of
species difficult to count. We tested the effectiveness of sample counts
in monitoring population trends of wild animals, using as a model
population the Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) in Gran Paradiso National Park
(Italy), both with computer simulations and using historical census data
collected over the last 65 years. Despite sample counts could fail to
correctly estimate the true population abundance, sampling half of the
target area could reliably monitor the trend of the target population.
In case of strong changes in abundance, an even lower proportion of the
total area could be sufficient to identify the direction of the
population trend. However, when there is a high yearly trend
variability, the required number of samples increases and even counting
in the entire area can be ineffective to monitor population dynamics.
Lastly, the effect of other parameters (such as which portion of the
area is sampled or the detectability) was marginal, but these should be
tested case by case. Sample counts could therefore constitute a viable
alternative to assess population trends, allowing for important,
cost-effective improvements in the monitoring of wild animals of
conservation interest.