Nils Rietze

and 4 more

The fire season of 2020 in Siberia set a precedent for extreme wildfires in the Arctic tundra. Large fires burned in the carbon-rich permafrost landscape, releasing vast amounts of carbon, and changing land surface processes by burning vegetation and organic soils. However, little is known about the mosaics of burned and unburned patches formed by tundra fires and the underlying processes that generate them. In this study, we investigated six fire scars in the northeastern Siberian tundra using high-resolution PlanetScope imagery (3 m) to map burned fraction within the scars. We then used Bayesian mixed models to identify which biotic and abiotic predictors influenced the burned fraction. We observed high spatial variation in burned fraction across all tundra landforms common to the region. Current medium-resolution fire products could not capture this heterogeneity, thereby underestimating the burned area of fire scars by a factor of 1.1 to 4.4. The heterogeneity of the burn mosaic indicates a mix of burned and unburned patches, with median unburned patch sizes being smaller than 180 to 324 m². Pre-fire land surface temperature, vegetation heterogeneity and topography predicted burn fraction in our analysis, matching factors previously shown to influence large-scale fire occurrence in the Arctic. Future studies need to consider the fine-scale heterogeneity within tundra landscapes to improve our understanding and predictions of fire spread, carbon emissions, post-fire recovery and ecosystem functioning.

Maria Dance

and 23 more

The Arctic tundra biome is undergoing rapid shrub expansion (“shrubification”) in response to anthropogenic climate change. During the previous ~2.6 million years, glacial cycles caused substantial shifts in Arctic vegetation, leading to changes in species’ distributions, abundance, and connectivity, which have left lasting impacts on the genetic structure of modern populations. Examining how shrubs responded to past climate change using genetic data can inform the ecological and evolutionary consequences of shrub expansion today. Here we test scenarios of Quaternary population history of dwarf birch species (Betula nana L. and Betula Glandulosa Michx.) using SNP markers obtained from RAD sequencing and approximate Bayesian computation. We compare the timings of population events with ice sheet reconstructions and other paleoenvironmental information to untangle the impacts of alternating cold and warm periods on the phylogeography of dwarf birch. Our best supported model suggested that the species diverged in the Mid-Pleistocene Transition as glaciations intensified, and ice sheets expanded. We found support for a complex history of inter- and intraspecific divergences and gene flow, with secondary contact occurring during periods of both expanding and retreating ice sheets. Our spatiotemporal analysis suggests that the modern genetic structure of dwarf birch was shaped by transitions in climate between glacials and interglacials, with ice sheets acting alternatively as a barrier or an enabler of population mixing. Tundra shrubs may have had more nuanced responses to past climatic changes than phylogeographic analyses have often suggested, with implications for future eco-evolutionary responses to anthropogenic climate change.

Jonathan von Oppen

and 5 more