Rahisha Thottolil

and 3 more

Urbanization is an inevitable process linked to regional development. As cities and towns expand, they put more pressure on the environment and resources. Understanding the evolution of urban areas and its effects on landscape dynamics are crucial for sustainable urban development. Spatial urban expansion models, such as the Cellular Automata based Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (CA-PLUS) model, have proven to be effective in tracking urban growth and predicting future expansion. These models incorporate various spatial parameters to assess their influence on regional urbanization. This study forecasts urbanization trends for the years 2025 and 2030 in Bangalore City, using the CA-PLUS model. This model integrates a land expansion analysis strategy (LEAS) with Cellular Automata-based random patch seeds (CARS), along with multiple driving factors. A 16-year time series dataset (from 2006 to 2022) was used to analyze land use patterns. The results show significant expansion in Bangalore, initially driven by growth at its core and later by peri-urban development, which has now extended beyond the city's boundaries. Various driving factors influencing land use changes were also identified and the model projected land use demand for 2022, which was then evaluated against the actual LULC map for 2022. Findings indicate that urban population, proximity to metro stations and road networks have a greater impact on urban expansion than other variables. The calibrated CA-PLUS model achieved 83% accuracy and a kappa coefficient exceeding 74%, demonstrating its utility in understanding urban land use dynamics for sustainable planning.