Solar activity can be captured by obaservations of Extreme Ultra Violet irradiance. The solar radio flux is often used as an index for the Extreme Ultra Violet irradiance, chiefly because of the ease of measuring it from the earth. Often referred to as the $F_{10.7}$, the value of the radio flux is enhanced by its long observation period that dates as far back as 1947. Forecasts of this proxy of solar activity can also be used as inputs to impact models. Impact models include atmospheric density models that are valuable for predictions of drag in near-earth satellite orbits. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been providing point forecasts of $F_{10.7}$ since 1997 on a weekly basis. Meanwhile, the past decade has witnessed new efforts to develop forecasting models of the $F_{10.7}$. The majority of these efforts take a deterministic approach to evaluate their respective forecasting performance. This paper provides a statistical baseline for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts of solar activity. The key idea is to acknowledge variations in forecast uncertainty over the solar cycle and convert point forecasts into probabilistic distributions. We contrast ways of producing such distributions and argue that the level of solar activity should be taken into account. The baseline distributions are climatology and distributions based on a state-dependent persistence model. A probabilistic version of NOAA forecasts is produced and evaluated against these baselines to infer their information content at all the lead times considered. The lead times considered are 1 to 27 days.