Juan Cruz

and 2 more

Creep events are millimeter-sized, aseismic movements that produce slip along portions of certain active faults \citep{Tymofyeyeva_2019}. These movements were first observed on the San Andreas through cultural offsets and have been measured with creepmeters since the 1970s. Despite having knowledge of the events for over 40 years, little is known about the mechanisms that produce creep events. There are two popular mechanisms which have been proposed to drive creep events: the ‘kick’ hypothesis (e.g., \citealp*{Kanu_2011}; \citealp*{Helmstetter_2009}) and the self-driven hypothesis (e.g., \citealp{Rubin_2008}; \citealp{Skarbek_2012};\citealp{Wei_2013}). The self-driven hypothesis asserts that creep events are triggered at moderate depths by local frictional weakening patches and then propagate to the surface. In contrast, the ‘kick’ hypothesis suggests that slip events originate very near the surface from perturbations in stress or pore-pressure \citep*{Gittins_2022}, which in turn may be linked to rainfall, atmospheric tides, or other environmental changes. To investigate the ‘kick’ hypothesis, we used a newly generated catalog of creep events synthesized from a global network of creepmeters first established on the central portion of the San Andreas Fault in the 1970s. This catalog of over 5000 creep events spanning over 40 years allows for a more complete analysis compared to earlier work \citep{Roeloffs_2001}. We used this catalog to perform statistical analyses to investigate the relationship between the creep events and rainfall. Our analysis has uncovered that even within the same region, some creepmeters' creep events are more correlated with rain than others. Thus, our results favor the conclusion that creep events are not explained by one of the two theories alone, but instead by a combination of both hypotheses.